Which decision-making technique involves group members responding in writing to questions posed by the group leader without meeting face-to-face, to estimate the likelihood and outcome of future events?

Which decision-making technique involves group members responding in writing to questions posed by the group leader without meeting face-to-face, to estimate the likelihood and outcome of future events?

• A. Delphi Technique
• B. Brainstorming
• C. Focus Groups
• D. Interviews

Answer: (A)

The technique being tested is a structured forecasting method that uses anonymous, written rounds to build consensus on the likelihood and outcomes of future events. In this approach, group members respond in writing to questions posed by the group leader, and there are typically multiple rounds. After each round, the responses are summarized and shared, with participants given a chance to revise their answers in light of the group feedback. This process reduces the influence of dominant personalities and fosters unbiased estimates, aiming to converge on well-supported forecasts about future events.

This fits perfectly because it emphasizes writing in response to questions, no face-to-face meetings, and iterative rounds designed to estimate probability and impact of future events. By contrast, brainstorming focuses on generating ideas in person, focus groups are moderated in-person discussions to explore opinions, and interviews are one-on-one conversations, none of which center on anonymous written rounds and iterative forecasting.